UBS raises European gas price forecasts amid Gulf LNG disruptions
UBS has revised its European gas price forecasts upward through 2027, citing ongoing disruptions to liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the Gulf region and tighter storage levels across the European Union. The firm now expects prices to reach €75 per megawatt-hour, or $25 per million British thermal units, in the fourth quarter of 2026, up from its previous estimate of €62. For 2027, UBS anticipates prices at €45, or $15, compared to €40 earlier.
The adjustments also include maintaining a $1 premium over the TTF benchmark. UBS anticipates that negotiations will progress toward year-end, supporting stable shipping activity and LNG flows. The firm expects LNG supply to recover more slowly than oil, with low storage levels and the phase-out of Russian gas continuing to tighten the market.
Looking beyond 2027, UBS’s long-term forecasts remain unchanged, with prices projected at €30, or $10, in 2028, €22, or $8, in 2029, and €21, or $7, in 2030. Meanwhile, for the United States, UBS has cut its Henry Hub price forecasts to $3.50 per million British thermal units in the fourth quarter of 2026 and 2027, down from around $3.8 previously.