UBS raises European gas price forecasts on Gulf LNG disruptions
UBS has revised its price forecasts for European gas, citing ongoing disruptions to liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the Gulf region and tighter storage levels across the European Union. The firm now expects prices to reach €75 per megawatt-hour, or $25 per million British thermal units, in the fourth quarter of 2026, up from the previous estimate of €62. For 2027, UBS anticipates prices at €45, or $15, compared to the earlier forecast of €40.
The adjustments also extend to Japan-Korea Marker prices, which UBS maintains at a $1 premium over the TTF. The firm expects negotiations to progress toward year-end, supporting stable shipping activity and LNG flows. However, it forecasts a slower recovery in LNG supply compared to oil, with low storage levels and the phase-out of Russian gas contributing to market tightness.
Looking beyond 2027, UBS's long-term forecasts remain largely unchanged, projecting €30, or $10, in 2028, €22, or $8, in 2029, and €21, or $7, in 2030. In contrast, UBS has reduced its Henry Hub price forecasts for the United States to $3.50 per million British thermal units in the fourth quarter of 2026 and 2027, down from around $3.8 previously.