UBS raises European gas price outlook on Gulf LNG disruptions
UBS has revised its price forecasts for European natural gas, citing ongoing disruptions to liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the Gulf region and tight storage levels across the European Union. The firm now expects the Dutch TTF gas price to reach €75 per megawatt-hour (MWh) in the fourth quarter of 2026, up from the previous estimate of €62. For 2027, UBS projects TTF prices at €45, an increase from the earlier forecast of €40.
The adjustments also apply to UK gas prices, which UBS maintains at a $1 premium over TTF. The firm anticipates negotiations to progress by year-end, supporting stable shipping activity and LNG flows. However, it expects LNG supply to recover more slowly than oil, with low storage levels and the phase-out of Russian gas continuing to tighten the market.
Looking beyond 2027, UBS’s long-term forecasts remain unchanged, with prices projected at €30 in 2028, €22 in 2029, and €21 in 2030. Meanwhile, for the United States, UBS has cut its gas price forecasts to $3.50 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in the fourth quarter of 2026 and 2027, down from around $3.8 previously.