UBS Sees Higher European Gas Prices Through 2027

UBS has revised its natural gas price forecasts for Europe, now projecting higher prices through 2027 due to ongoing disruptions in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the Gulf region. The investment bank expects prices to reach €75 per megawatt-hour ($25 per million British thermal units) in the fourth quarter of 2026, up from the previous estimate of €62. For 2027, the forecast has been adjusted to €45 ($15), compared to the earlier projection of €40.

The firm also anticipates that negotiations will progress toward the end of the year, supporting stable shipping activity and LNG flows. UBS notes that LNG supply is expected to recover more slowly than oil, while low storage levels and the phase-out of Russian gas will continue to tighten the market.

Looking beyond 2027, UBS’s long-term forecasts remain largely unchanged, with prices expected to drop to €30 ($10) in 2028, €22 ($8) in 2029, and €21 ($7) in 2030. For the United States, UBS has cut its price forecasts to $3.50 per million British thermal units for the fourth quarter of 2026 and 2027, down from around $3.8 previously.