A new report from the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) warns that Britain could face a severe gas shortage by the end of winter if a cold snap hits in the coming months. The UK's reliance on EU backup gas storage facilities is at risk, as those reserves are also running low. This could force the UK to rely on US liquefied natural gas (LNG), which would likely drive up household energy bills.
The report highlights that maintaining strong LNG deliveries throughout the winter is crucial to support Europe's gas balance and preserve storage levels. If LNG availability remains limited, storage levels could fall below 30 percent by the end of the winter, increasing the impact of any cold spells. EU gas reserves are currently at 72 percent, well below the 88 percent minimum considered safe.
As of October 1, the UK's underground gas storage levels stood at just 48 percent, significantly lower than other EU countries like Poland (99 percent), Portugal (94 percent), Spain (75 percent), and France (84 percent). The report warns that if supply remains tight by April 2027, the UK, along with Germany and France, could be left with no gas reserves, while Poland and Portugal might still have some left.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is further complicating the situation by disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for about 20 percent of global LNG trade. This has intensified competition for LNG cargoes between Europe and Asia, contributing to higher and more volatile global gas prices. As a result, the UK and EU are increasingly dependent on US imports, making them vulnerable to political interference.