UK Wheat Futures Inch Up Amid Mixed Global Grain Market Trends

UK feed wheat futures saw a slight increase last week, with the Nov-26 contract closing at £206.25 per tonne, up £0.50 from the previous week. Despite this gain, momentum indicators suggest near-term downside pressure, as prices have moved below the 20-day moving average. The market remains at risk of further consolidation unless new fundamental support emerges.

Global grain markets ended the week with mixed results. US wheat and maize markets declined, while Paris wheat futures gained. The USDA's Grain Stocks report showed higher-than-expected maize stocks, contributing to the downward pressure on US markets. However, diplomatic efforts towards restoring normal shipping routes in the Black Sea remained stalled, maintaining concerns over export disruption.

Paris rapeseed futures fell 3.2% in £/t last week to approximately £456.50/t, a larger drop than in euros due to sterling's rise against the euro. The Nov-26 contract fell further below the 20-day rolling average, which had previously acted as a support line. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also declined, reflecting the change in momentum in Nov-26 prices.

In the UK, delivered feed wheat into Yorkshire for November was quoted at £218.50/t, down £2.00 on the week. Bread wheat prices varied by region, with premiums ranging from £13.25 to £27.25 per tonne above the Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures. Attention now turns to the USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, expected to provide clearer direction on US crop sizes and global balance sheets.