The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) has reported a significant imbalance in the UK wheat supply and demand for the July 2025, June 2026 marketing season. The total availability of wheat exceeded the estimated end destinations, resulting in a residual of 794 Kt, or 6% of total demand. This residual suggests discrepancies in the surveys or estimates, likely influenced by extreme weather conditions over the past year.
Production estimates for the 2025 UK wheat crop were initially set at 11.958 Mt, with a confidence interval indicating potential variations. Similarly, on-farm stocks at the end of June saw a sharp 46% year-on-year fall, aligning with market reports of tightening supplies. Demand estimates were also uncertain, with factors such as lower grass growth and reduced livestock numbers affecting feed demand.
AHDB will continue collaborating with Defra and industry stakeholders to improve data accuracy and insights. Additionally, the report highlighted trends in other grains: barley exports dropped significantly, maize imports returned to typical levels, and oats saw modest increases in both exports and imports. As of October 16, November 2026 UK feed wheat futures ended at £205.00/t, influenced by sterling's rise against the euro and European export demand.