Ukraine Conflict Drives Global Food Prices to Record High

The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is severely impacting global food prices. Ukrainian exports have plummeted by 75% year-over-year in the first two weeks of August, with Russia stepping up its attacks on ports more than 70 times in July and early August.

Pablo Meijer, assistant industry economist at Oxford Economics, expects the World Bank food price index to rise by around 9.3% in 2026, easing to 4.4% in 2027. Ukraine's exports have fallen sharply with Odesa shut, and world wheat trade is running around 7% lower.

The two countries supply nearly a third of the world's wheat demand, with Russia being the largest exporter and Ukraine the fifth. A flare-up in hostilities has seen Russia's Black Sea grain exports fall to their lowest level in 15 years, down 65% year-over-year in July.