Ukraine Grain Exports May Plummet Under Different Port Scenarios

Experts from ASAP Agri have analyzed four possible scenarios for grain exports from Ukraine in the 2026/27 crop year.

The study found that, depending on the operation of ports in Greater Odessa and the Danube, exports could range from 13.8 to 45.8 million tons.

USDA analysts increased their forecast for Ukrainian agricultural production to 85.7 million tons, while ASAP Agri experts raised it to 86.1 million tons due to adjustments in wheat harvesting estimates.

The Ministry of Economy estimates Ukraine's grain exports at 38-40 million tons, which is lower than the ASAP Agri forecast of 45.8 million tons and contradicts the USDA's lowered export forecast of 42.6 million tons.