Ukraine Grain Harvest Imperiled by Russia's Black Sea Blockade

Russia's blockade of Ukraine's Black Sea ports has put the country's grain harvest at risk, imperiling global food supplies. The blockage has already been devastating for Ukrainian farmers, with over 90% of their agricultural products exported via these ports.

The crisis began in June when Russian forces struck at least 50 Ukrainian cargo ships, killing more than 30 civilians. This included a strike on a ship off the coast of Odesa on July 19, which killed ten people onboard.

Ukraine has retaliated with its own attacks on Russia's Black Sea ports, including one this week on two major grain terminals in the city of Novorossiysk. The Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotsky said the grain export forecast will only be around 38-40 million tonnes for the 2026-27 fiscal year, a 12% drop from previous estimates.

Russia's own grain exports could fall by more than half in August compared to previous years due to disruptions in the Black and Azov seas. Ukraine has offered Russia a deal to halt attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea, but so far there is no agreement.