Ukraine Harvest Outlook Improves, But Exports Remain at Risk

The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has raised its forecast for Ukraine's 2026 grain and oilseed harvest to 84.6 million metric tons, up from its previous estimate of 83.6 million metric tons.

This would allow Ukraine to export nearly 52 million metric tons of agricultural products in the 2026/27 marketing year, compared with 41.1 million metric tons last season.

However, this scenario is possible only if logistical bottlenecks are resolved, particularly through the full restoration of operations at the deep-water ports in the Greater Odesa region.

The association warned that the inability to export a significant share of the harvest would have serious consequences for Ukrainian farmers and the broader economy.