Ukraine-Russia Conflict Drives Up Grain Prices, Creates Pricing Opportunities

Global events and production concerns are driving up corn and soybean prices, creating new pricing opportunities for farmers. According to University of Illinois agricultural economist Gary Schnitkey, the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict is causing issues at ports, leading to increased commodity prices.

The conflict has resulted in some ports having issues, which is contributing to higher prices. Additionally, there's a belief that yields are lower than expected this year, which would further reduce corn and soybean supply. Schnitkey suggests that farmers may want to take a fresh look at their marketing plans due to the rising prices.

Schnitkey notes that with prices moving higher, it might be a good time for farmers to price their 2026 crop at harvest or even start pricing their 2027 crop, which could offer opportunities near $5 for corn and $13 for soybeans. However, he also emphasizes the importance of watching demand factors, particularly whether soybean exports to China improve following a meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi.

Despite stronger commodity prices, Schnitkey cautions that producers cannot ignore rising input costs, including high fertilizer costs, with ammonia prices in the high sevens. He projects record-breaking non-land costs for both corn and soybeans in 2027, which would result in profitability but emphasizes that these costs are a concern.