Ukraine Warns Exporters to Prepare for Prolonged Port Closure

Ukraine's largest farmers' union UAC is warning producers and exporters to prepare for a prolonged halt in deep-water port operations. Russia's drone strikes on Black Sea port infrastructure in Odesa have effectively blocked a route that used to handle 90% of Ukraine's exports.

The agriculture ministry estimates that Kyiv can only export about half the required volume through Danube river ports and by rail, which costs up to $50 per ton more than using deep-water ports. The capacity of these alternative routes is also substantially lower.

According to UAC, Ukraine's agricultural exports brought in $22 billion last year and are a critical source of revenue for the state budget. However, Ukrainian food exports have already declined and could fall to about 1.7 million tons in August against at least 4 million tons before the seaports blockade.

The expected decline in exports will likely lead to reduced plantings for the 2027 harvest, particularly of winter wheat. Ukraine harvested 24.7 million tons of wheat from 98% of the sowing area as of September 1.