Ukraine Wheat Prices Drop as Demand Weakens and Export Costs Rise
Wheat prices in Ukraine continue to face downward pressure due to weak global demand and high export logistics costs. Importers are delaying purchases, keeping prices stable on international exchanges while domestic Ukrainian prices drop. December futures for US wheat showed minimal changes, with soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago rising 0.5% to $254.4/t, HRW durum wheat in Kansas City falling 0.5% to $272.7/t, and spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis increasing 1% to $260.7/t. Meanwhile, December soft wheat quotes on Euronext in Paris surged 5.4% to €245.75/t ($275.3/t) due to a weakening euro.
Wheat exports from the US dropped 10.3% to 302.3 thousand tons between September 24 and October 1, a 49% decline from the previous year. Since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year, US wheat exports totaled 6.67 million tons, 35% lower than last year's pace. Ukraine's wheat exports also slowed, with only 118 thousand tons shipped in the first five days of October compared to 383 thousand tons last year. Since the season began, Ukraine has exported 2.89 million tons, down from 5.12 million tons the previous year.
Russian wheat exports have also plummeted, with shipments from Novorossiysk dropping from 2.4 million tons in September 2025 to 177.8 thousand tons in September 2026. The port of Taman has halted operations entirely, while Tuapse is operating with restrictions. Overall, Russian wheat exports for the 2026/27 marketing year have fallen 62.8% compared to the previous year. Egypt, a major wheat importer, reduced its purchases by 76.6% in September due to rising prices, with Russia and Ukraine remaining its top suppliers.
In Ukraine, logistics challenges and rising costs are further straining the wheat market. Purchase prices have declined by UAH 300-500/t, with feed wheat now priced at UAH 5,000-5,500/t and food wheat at UAH 6,000-6,500/t. Export prices in the Danube ports remain high, but some traders are lowering prices due to ongoing attacks on shipping infrastructure. Favorable weather for winter wheat sowing in the US, EU, Russia, and Ukraine could add more pressure on prices in the second half of the season.