Ukraine's Export Losses Reach $2 Billion Amid Maritime Blockade

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) estimates that direct losses from lost export revenue in the second half of 2026 will exceed $2 billion due to the suspension of maritime exports from Ukraine.

This follows weeks of aerial attacks on Ukraine's Black Sea ports, which led to the movement of vessels into these ports being suspended on July 23. Ukrainian traders have begun redirecting some of their wheat and other cargo towards the Danube, but most exporters are taking a wait-and-see approach.

While alternative routes such as rail, road transport, and Danube ports can handle 2.5 million tonnes per month, this is insufficient to meet typical export volumes of 4-4.5 million tonnes per month. However, the NBU expects these volumes to increase in November, offsetting the negative effect.

The NBU notes that the situation remains more manageable than during the blockade of 2022, thanks to well-developed alternative routes and farmers' experience.