Ukraine's Grain Exports at Risk as Black Sea Ports Remain Shut

The suspension of Ukraine's Black Sea ports due to Russian attacks has significant implications for wheat exports, according to Taras Kovatsenko, Commercial Director of Vilia. He notes that over 85% of Ukraine's grain exports are traditionally shipped by sea.

While Danube ports and overland routes remain alternative export channels, their combined capacity is far from sufficient to replace the Black Sea corridor. In 2025, they accounted for only 9% of Ukraine's grain exports.

Kovatsenko believes wheat will be the most vulnerable crop under these conditions. He states that domestic consumption in Ukraine is limited, and Europe is not a traditional destination for Ukrainian wheat.

The EU reinstated import quotas last year, and Ukraine's quota has already been exhausted, making additional exports no longer economically viable. Kovatsenko advises farmers to hold onto their wheat stocks rather than sell immediately.