Ukraine's Grain Exports Plunge as Odesa Falls

Ukraine's grain exports are expected to plummet by more than half due to Russian strikes on Odesa, one of the world's leading grain shippers. The farm sector brought in over half of Ukraine's export earnings last year, making this forecast a significant blow. Wheat exports are now estimated at 8.3 million tons, down 53% from earlier projections.

The attacks have cut off Odesa, and while the Danube River is an alternative route, record-low water levels due to drought have limited grain movement. As a result, the new harvest is piling up on farms, dragging down grain prices inside Ukraine.

The country has about 59 million tons of grain-storage capacity, which may be used up by early November at the current pace. This leaves a shortfall of around 11 million tons before autumn ends, putting pressure on farmers.

Ukraine's government is trying to mitigate the impact with loan help for farmers and additional storage and export routes. However, these backup measures are smaller, slower, and more expensive than Odesa.