Ukraine's Wheat Profits at Risk While Rapeseed Holds Stronger Margin

Wheat production in Ukraine is nearing a critical point, with the 2026 season potentially becoming unprofitable. Preliminary data indicates wheat yields have dropped by 6.6%, falling to 6.1 tonnes per hectare (t/ha). Under a scenario where production costs rise by 10% and selling prices drop by 10%, the break-even yield for wheat would be 5.98 t/ha, leaving very little room for profitability given the current yield.

In contrast, rapeseed shows a stronger resilience. Yields for rapeseed have increased from 2.9 to 3.4 t/ha. Even under the same scenario of rising costs and falling prices, rapeseed's break-even yield remains at 2.5 t/ha, well below its current yield. This suggests rapeseed has a more substantial profitability buffer compared to wheat.

A more severe scenario, where costs rise by 10% and prices decline by 20%, would push wheat's break-even yield to 6.72 t/ha, surpassing the actual yield. For rapeseed, the break-even point would be 2.81 t/ha, still below the current yield of 3.4 t/ha.

Based on sales of the 2025 crop, average earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) across major crops fell to $405 per hectare, a 9% decline from $446 per hectare in 2024. Agrohub advises evaluating seasonal performance by considering the final financial result per hectare, including selling prices, costs, and the timing of sales.