Ukrainian farmers are facing an increasingly difficult situation as the war with Russia continues to disrupt global grain exports. Oleksandr Chumak, a farmer in the Odesa region, has seen strong yields this harvest season, but storage facilities in Ukraine and Russia are overflowing with unsold grain. Russian drone and missile attacks on Black Sea targets have made it impossible to insure commercial ships, trapping millions of tons of produce meant for Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. With no ceasefire in sight, Chumak and other farmers are struggling to sell their crops at a profit, leaving them with little reason to plant for the 2027 season.
The collapse in domestic prices has left farmers unable to cover basic expenses like taxes and land rent. Andrii Dykun, chairman of the Ukrainian Agri Council, highlighted that only rapeseeds and sunflower seeds are currently sellable, but even then, the volumes are insufficient. 'So why should we plant if today we have no profits at all?' he questioned. The situation is further complicated by the fact that storage facilities are at capacity, making it impractical to continue farming operations without a viable market.
PrivatBank, Ukraine's largest lender, has increased its working capital finance to agribusinesses, disbursing 1.53 billion hryvnia ($34.2 million) between June and August. However, the funds remain tied up in grain inventories, forcing farms to seek alternative strategies. Some producers are selling crops at lower prices to maintain liquidity, while others with storage capacity are waiting for better market conditions. The Ukrainian agricultural sector is forecast to increase production to 85 million tonnes this year, but carry-over stocks are straining storage infrastructure and logistics, which are increasingly vulnerable to military strikes.
Farmers like Chumak are adjusting their planting plans for next year, favoring oilseeds and niche crops with prices less dependent on logistics costs. The war's ever-present threat adds another layer of challenge, with farmers working amidst constant explosions. The situation inside Ukraine and its consequences for global food chains are the most severe since the war began, with Ukraine and Russia previously supplying over half of the world's sunflower oil, nearly a fifth of its barley, and 14% of its wheat. The blockage of Black Sea ports has led to a significant drop in exports, with August exports totaling 981,000 tonnes, down about 58% year on year.