UN: Military Solution Not Imminent in Gas-Rich Mozambique Region

The United Nations Special Rapporteur on human rights and counter-terrorism, Ben Saul, recently concluded an eleven-day mission to Mozambique. In his report, he states that attacks against civilians have increased in Cabo Delgado, a gas-rich region where the armed insurgency has continued since 2017.

Cabo Delgado is central to Mozambique's gas ambitions in the Rovuma basin. The region is home to several major gas projects, including TotalEnergies' Mozambique LNG project at Afungi. The global gas sector remains marked by contrasting dynamics between resumed activity and persistent tensions.

The report concludes that a military solution does not appear imminent due to military constraints and the resilience of the non-state armed group. Ben Saul recommends exploring a political path, stating that 'the persistence of the terrorist threat for nine years could justify considering avenues for negotiation to defuse the conflict and bring it to an end.'

The conflict has caused at least 6,632 deaths, including 2,772 civilians, between 2017 and mid-2026. The crisis has also displaced approximately 1.5 million people.