US Corn Crop Forecast: Second-Largest Ever Despite Weather Woes

U.S. farmers are on track to harvest their second-largest corn crop ever despite lower yields caused by severe heat and drought stress in parts of the western Midwest this summer.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected the average 2026 U.S. corn yield at 180.7 bushels per acre, down from its forecast a month ago. However, the agency's harvested acreage outlook increased to 88.6 million acres, offsetting the drop in yields.

This resulted in production increasing slightly to 16.013 billion bushels from the USDA's July forecast of 16 billion bushels. The second-largest corn crop on record is expected to surpass only the 2025 crop of 17.021 billion bushels.

The severe heat and drought stress were exacerbated by wars disrupting supply chains, driving up fuel and fertilizer costs, and a potential super El Niño threatening global food production.