US Gas Prices Soar Amid Perfect Storm of Crises
The year is 2030 and the US is facing its third great natural gas crisis in eight years.
In October 2022, Russia's invasion of Ukraine cut off two-fifths of Europe's gas supply, but importers were reassured that the Persian Gulf and the US had plenty to spare. The same happened in 2026 when a war with Iran knocked out 20% of global LNG supply - America's booming fossil-fuel industry promised to fill the gap.
However, this confidence was soon proven naive. US natural gas prices were caught in a perfect storm: growth in shale output had been faltering, and extreme weather had hit a power sector crippled by former President Donald Trump's war on clean energy. Frontier AI labs were also sucking up fossil fuels to power data centers.
The result was that the US benchmark Henry Hub prices rose above $10 per million British thermal units for the first time since 2008, causing ripples throughout the economy. In Iowa, a tripling in gas-derived fertilizer prices caused farmers to plant their smallest spring corn crop in two decades. Ford Motor Co. also eliminated the second shift at its Wayne, Michigan assembly line, citing rising energy and supply-chain costs.