US Grain Exports to China Surge 176% Amid Trade Deal Recovery

US grain exports to China have rebounded from tariff-affected declines in 2025. Grain exports saw a 176% year-on-year growth in the first nine months of 2026.

This marked a significant recovery for US grain shipments, which had weakened amid rising trade tensions and higher tariffs in 2025. According to Filipe Gouveia, shipping analysis manager at Bimco, 'an agreement reached in November 2025 lowered tariffs on US grains and set import targets for US soya beans, allowing shipments to partly recover in 2026.'

Total dry bulk shipments to China more than doubled, registering a 104% growth year-on-year over the first three quarters of this year. Bimco data shows that US exports to China of grain, coal, petcoke, and other dry bulk commodities were over 50 million tonnes in 2024 but declined to around 14.5 million tonnes for the full year 2025.

Looking ahead, Gouveia expects US grain shipments to continue ramping up as this year's soya beans and maize crops are harvested and exported. He noted that 'US maize could be in especially high demand' due to attacks on ships in the Black Sea bringing Ukrainian seaborne exports to a halt.