US-Iran Conflict Triggers Nickel Price Decline Amid Oil Market Turmoil

The US-Iran conflict has temporarily subsided after President Trump ordered a suspension of airstrikes on Iran, citing depleted air defense interceptor reserves and a desire for diplomatic negotiations. Iran subsequently announced its own pause in retaliatory strikes. The resulting decrease in geopolitical tensions led to a sharp drop in international oil prices, with Brent crude plummeting 5% to around $92 per barrel.

The decline in oil prices had a ripple effect on the nickel market, causing the most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) to fall by 0.42% and close at 132,170 yuan/mt. The US Federal Reserve's upcoming July FOMC meeting is also expected to keep interest rates unchanged, providing relief from macroeconomic pressure.

Meanwhile, export customs clearance delays have occurred for some Indonesian nickel products due to newly added strategic mineral element detection procedures, which require simultaneous testing of 17 rare earth elements (REEs), uranium, and thorium. This has caused delays in the issuance of inspection reports, affecting shipments of certain NPI cargoes.

In other news, the SMM average price of #1 refined nickel rose to 133,000 yuan/mt, while spot premiums for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel decreased by 250 yuan/mt. The US Federal Reserve's July FOMC meeting is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%.