US-Iran MoU Expires with Oil Flows Yet Far from Pre-War Levels

Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz nearly tripled during the 60-day window covered by the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran, according to ship tracking data from trade intelligence firm Kpler.

The MoU was in effect from June 17 until its expiration on Monday without a peace deal. During this period, an average of 6.1 million barrels per day were exported via the Gulf, which is about 40 percent of the roughly 15 million barrels that transited the Strait each day in 2025.

Kpler's data shows that more than half of the shipments occurred in the first three weeks of the agreement, and 'by the end the flow was thinner, darker and re-accumulating behind the chokepoint', said Emmanuel Belostrino, head of Global Crude and Geopolitical Market Data at Kpler.

Oil prices edged higher on Thursday, with Brent crude futures up about 0.3 percent at $91.93 per barrel as of 06:00 GMT. Markets anticipate further declines in oil flows amid the impasse between Washington and Tehran.