US-Iran Stalemate: Economic Pressure Fails to Deliver
The conflict between the US and Iran has entered an uneasy grey zone, with neither side able to achieve a clear victory. Large-scale military strikes have decreased, but vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz still face significant risks, and regional oil producers remain below pre-war output.
US President Donald Trump has pivoted back to economic pressure as the primary lever to force Iran into a final agreement, one that aims to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. The US administration has announced plans for what it calls the harshest sanctions in Iranian history, targeting not just Iran itself but also countries and companies buying its oil, moving its money, or supporting its shipping.
However, sceptics argue that Washington has already decided on regime change in Iran as the real objective. This suspicion makes any timeline difficult to predict. Economic pressure of this magnitude will undoubtedly hurt Iran, but whether it hurts enough to force acceptance of US terms is uncertain.