US-Iran Talks Stall: Crude Oil Prices Benefit from Reduced Geopolitical Risk

Crude oil prices have advanced as uncertainty over US-Iran diplomatic talks continues to provide support. The shift in US policy towards economic pressure rather than military action has reduced the geopolitical risk premium. Despite mediation efforts, there are no immediate signs of a resumption in negotiations.

The Trump administration has reportedly told mediators that it does not intend to revive the preliminary June agreement that later collapsed. Iran and Oman have agreed on a revenue-sharing framework for the Strait of Hormuz, but this does not imply an immediate reopening.

Goldman Sachs estimates Persian Gulf oil exports at around 15-16 million barrels per day, significantly below pre-conflict levels but well above the March low. The International Energy Agency expects global oil supply to decline by 4.3 million barrels per day due to disruptions in key shipping routes.

In the US, inventories increased by only 95,000 barrels to 428.9 million barrels for the week ended August 21, below expectations. Refinery utilization rose to 97.4%, while net crude imports declined by 161,000 barrels per day. OPEC lowered its global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day.