US-Iran Tensions Send Brent Crude Prices Soaring Towards $100

The collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire has sent shockwaves through the oil market, pushing Brent crude prices towards $100 per barrel. According to Rapidan Energy Group, a Washington-based energy consultancy, the breakdown between the two nations has significantly altered their outlook.

Rapidan raised its fourth-quarter Brent price forecast to about $100 per barrel, up from $85, citing expectations that disruptions in Strait of Hormuz trade will persist longer than previously anticipated. The firm warned that if hopes for a peace deal fade and markets price in tighter supply and demand, Brent could climb to $105 per barrel in the coming months.

The forecast assumes shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will only partially recover by late next year. Rapidan expects transit volumes to reach about 35% of pre-conflict levels by October 2026 and 65% by 2027. The global energy market has been volatile since the US-Iran ceasefire collapsed, with Red Sea maritime trade also disrupted by ongoing Houthi attacks.

Major Wall Street institutions have also revised their oil outlooks. Goldman Sachs analysts recently said prolonged disruptions could push Brent above $120 per barrel. Rapidan now expects the global oil market to stay in deficit for at least another year, though weaker Chinese demand may partially offset price pressures.