US-Iran War Disrupts Oil Supplies: Can Existing Stocks Last Six Months?
The ongoing US-Iran war is causing significant disruption to global oil supplies, raising concerns about whether existing stocks can weather another six months of conflict.
The crisis has led to a massive loss of 2.6 billion barrels of oil since the start of the war, making it the largest supply disruption ever in cumulative terms, according to Reuters calculations.
This amounts to around 25 days' worth of global consumption based on pre-war demand of 103 million barrels per day, but some analysts believe the daily supply gap could be as high as 11 million bpd.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has announced a release of 400 million barrels from emergency reserves and estimates that global stocks are still substantial, covering the current estimated supply gap for around 300 days.