US Natgas Output to Hit Record High in 2026 as Demand Holds Steady

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its Short-Term Energy Outlook, projecting that US natural gas output will reach a record high in 2026. According to the EIA, dry gas production is expected to increase from 107.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 110.0 bcfd in 2026 and 111.2 bcfd in 2027.

The agency also forecasts that domestic gas consumption will remain steady at 91.6 bcfd in 2026, matching the record high set in 2025, before declining slightly to 91.5 bcfd in 2027.

Gas prices rose sharply in January due to increased heating demand and reduced production, leading to a record storage withdrawal during a winter storm. The EIA now predicts gas inventories will end the withdrawal season in late March at less than 1.9 trillion cubic feet, which is 8% below previous forecasts.

EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey stated that higher prices in the near term will increase drilling and result in higher production later this year, helping to replenish storage. The agency's updated forecast anticipates Henry Hub prices will average $4.30/MMBtu in 2026 and $4.40/MMBtu in 2027, which is 5% lower than their previous forecast.