US Oil and Gas Production Rises Amid Iran War Uncertainty
Oil and gas production in key US states has increased in the third quarter of 2026, according to a survey by the Dallas Fed. Texas, Louisiana, and New Mexico saw production rise during this period.
The surge in production comes as US oil prices reached $100 a barrel due to the ongoing Iran war's impact on global supplies. The conflict has disrupted energy markets, causing volatility in crude futures.
US crude futures have been highly unpredictable over the past three months, averaging around $86 a barrel in Q3 2026. Prices fluctuated from a low of $67 in early July to a high of $107 in mid-September.
Respondents to the survey expressed uncertainty about future oil prices, predicting an average West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price of $88 a barrel by year-end 2026, with a wide range of $70 to $126. They also forecasted a Henry Hub natural gas price of $3.29 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) at the end of 2026.
The Iran war's ongoing impact on energy markets has created an unpredictable environment for producers, as stated by one respondent: 'We are getting to the point in this global conflict and its effect on commodity markets that it is tough to predict what the remainder of 2026 and also 2027 will potentially look like.'
Data was collected between September 16-24, with 125 energy firms participating. Of these, 83 were exploration and production companies, while 42 were oilfield services firms.