USDA Boost Sends Soybean Futures into Free Fall

Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade plummeted on Friday as the US Department of Agriculture unexpectedly increased its estimate for soybean production in 2026-27.

The agency raised US soybean yields to 52.8 bushels per acre, a 0.1 bu./ac increase from August's numbers and above average trade estimates that had called for a small cut.

Total production was also bumped up to 4.535 billion bushels, surpassing the previous month's estimate of 4.519 billion bushels. However, this increase in production led to a 10 million bushel reduction in anticipated US soybean ending stocks for the marketing year, which now stands at 310 million bushels.

Corn futures also took a hit as cuts to US production came in short of trade estimates. Average US corn yields were reduced by 2.2 bu./ac from August, at 178.5 bu./ac, with anticipated production of 15.800 billion bushels, down from 16.013 billion bushels in August and below the 17.021 billion bushels grown the previous year.