USDA Corn Carryout Hits 1.567 Billion Bushels, Tightening Market
The September crop reports from USDA have introduced significant changes to the 2026 corn market math. The projected U.S. corn carryout for the 2026-27 marketing year has dropped to 1.567 billion bushels, a decline of 18.5% from the estimated 2025-26 carryover.
This smaller crop will meet demand, leading to a tighter supply cushion. As a result, every additional change in yield, exports, ethanol demand, or livestock feeding becomes more important. The season-average farm price has risen to $4.80 per bushel, up 30 cents from the August estimate and well above the $4.15 projected average for 2025-26.
The USDA's September numbers also highlight a regional divide in corn production. Iowa is projected at an extraordinary 219 bushels per acre, potentially setting a state record. In contrast, Nebraska is projected at 177 bushels per acre, compared with 194 last year. South Dakota falls to 145 from 171, while North Dakota is projected at 130 compared with 158 in 2025.
While yield remains an important factor, the market will also be driven by demand. USDA projects U.S. corn exports for 2026-27 at 3.275 billion bushels, which is below the 3.425 billion estimated for 2025-26 but still a significant component of demand.
The soybean market tells a different story. The projected ending stocks stand at only 310 million bushels, and the season-average price is now projected at $12 per bushel, 60 cents above the August estimate.