The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has corrected its September 2026 corn yield and production estimates after a processing error affected data for Kansas, Nebraska, and national figures. The error, identified by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), impacted plant populations, ear counts, and overall production forecasts. The revised September estimate now puts U.S. corn production at 15.8 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the previous forecast and 7 percent below 2025. The national average yield was adjusted to 178.8 bushels per acre, 1.9 bushels below the prior estimate and 7.7 bushels below last year.
The correction does not alter the October forecasts released on October 9, which remain unchanged. The October report forecasts U.S. corn production at 16.0 billion bushels, with an average yield of 181.2 bushels per acre. This distinction is crucial for growers, as the processing error only affected the September data, while the October estimates were reviewed and validated.
Corn growers have expressed strong criticism over the error, with the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) calling the mistake unacceptable. NCGA President Matt Frostic argued that recent NASS reports have cost corn growers billions in market value, further eroding confidence in the agency's ability to produce accurate statistics. The association is urging NASS to examine its processes and take action to prevent similar errors in the future.
The issue arises amid a challenging economic backdrop for corn producers, who are already grappling with tight margins and high input costs. Following the October 9 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, corn prices fell immediately after the anticipated 2026 corn yield was increased by 2.7 bushels per acre. Frostic emphasized the importance of reliable government crop estimates, as they influence market expectations and financial decisions for producers.