The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that U.S. ethanol exports will reach $5.4 billion in fiscal 2026, up from $4.59 billion in 2025, and rise further to $5.5 billion in 2027. This growth comes as American suppliers gain market share in international markets where Brazil has lost ground due to strong domestic demand limiting exportable supplies.
Between 2020 and 2023, the U.S. accounted for 48% of global ethanol exports, while Brazil held 23%. By 2025, the U.S. share climbed to 64%, with Brazil’s falling to 12%. Brazilian ethanol exports in 2025 were 955 million liters lower than in 2023, while U.S. exports expanded by approximately 3 billion liters.
The USDA attributes Brazil’s weaker export performance to higher domestic fuel ethanol consumption, which reduced available supplies for international buyers. Meanwhile, increasing demand from Canada, the European Union, the United Kingdom, India, Colombia, and the Philippines supported U.S. export growth.
In the first half of 2026, U.S. ethanol shipments increased 12% by volume and 21% by value compared to the same period in 2025. However, the USDA notes that biofuel policies, international energy prices, and trade agreements could influence future demand and export competitiveness.
Brazil’s reduced participation in global ethanol exports may not be permanent. The USDA identifies Brazilian production growth, particularly in corn-based ethanol, as a key uncertainty. By the end of 2026, Brazil could add approximately 3 billion liters of corn ethanol production capacity, potentially strengthening its ability to compete with U.S. suppliers.
The changing market shares highlight the distinction between direct U.S., Brazil ethanol trade and competition in third-country markets. While Brazil’s domestic ethanol market remains important, stronger consumption at home has coincided with a loss of international market share. The expansion of corn ethanol production could help Brazil regain some of that ground.