USDA Lowers India's Corn and Rice Production Forecasts Amid Erratic Monsoons

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reduced India's corn production forecast for 2026-27 to 50 million metric tons, a 4% decrease from its August estimate and a 9% decline from last year. This downward revision is largely due to erratic monsoon conditions that have impacted crop growth.

The harvested area for corn has been cut from 14.41 million hectares to 14 million hectares, while yield is estimated lower at 3.57 tonnes per hectare compared to 3.61 tonnes in August and 3.82 tonnes last year.

Rice production is also projected to decline, with the USDA estimating 147 million metric tons for 2026-27, down 2% from August and 4.6% year-on-year. The global rice outlook is similarly weaker, with world production forecast at 533.85 million metric tons, a 2.21% decrease from last year.

In contrast, India's wheat outlook remains firm, with the USDA estimating 2026-27 production at 121 million metric tons, unchanged from August but 2.6% above the previous year.