The USDA's October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report surprised analysts with higher-than-expected corn and soybean yields for the 2026 crop. The national average corn yield was projected at 181.2 bushels per acre, up from the September estimate of 178.5 bushels. This marked the largest September to October increase since 2005, with total U.S. corn production estimated at 16.034 billion bushels. Ending stocks for corn were set at 1.849 billion bushels, a figure described as "not burdensome" by Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX.
Demand for corn also saw adjustments, with feed and residual use rising by 50 million bushels, ethanol and by-products use increasing by 50 million bushels, and exports up by 25 million bushels. Despite these rises, supply remained higher than demand. The season-average farm price for corn was lowered to $4.70 per bushel. Suderman attributed the yield increase to rain delays that allowed surveyors a better view of the standing crop.
For soybeans, the USDA raised the yield by three-tenths of a bushel to 53.1 bushels per acre, increasing production to 4.562 billion bushels. Exports rose by 10 million bushels, while ending stocks increased by 5 million bushels to 315 million. The season-average price held steady at $12.00 per bushel. Suderman noted that the soybean balance sheet remained "relatively tight," despite the modest yield gain.
Wheat exports for 2026/27 were cut by 25 million bushels to 750 million, with ending stocks climbing to 740 million bushels. The season-average farm price for wheat was reduced to $6.30 per bushel. Suderman explained that U.S. wheat exports were lagging due to competition from other origins offering cheaper wheat, exacerbated by a strong dollar.