USDA Reports Record-High Corn Stocks, Surpassing Market Expectations
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported on September 30 that old-crop corn stocks totaled 2.095 billion bushels as of September 1, 2026, which is a 35% increase from last year and significantly higher than market expectations.
This surprise matters because it sets the supply base for the 2026/27 marketing year, potentially putting pressure on commodity prices just as farmers accelerate harvest.
The report shows that corn stocks are not only larger than expected but also more than previously anticipated. The average trade expectation was 1.924 billion bushels, compared to the USDA's final figure of 2.095 billion, leaving a difference of nearly 9% or approximately 171 million bushels.
The location of these inventories is also significant, with on-farm stocks up 22% and off-farm stocks up 44%. This combination suggests that storage capacity will be crucial in managing the supply chain as harvest progresses.