USDA Reports to Decide Fate of Wheat Prices as Russia Exports Fall
Wheat futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) bounced back from a six-week low on Wednesday, gaining between 3 and 6 cents per bushel in early trading. The recovery was driven by concerns about Russian grain exports and fresh international buying, as traders positioned themselves ahead of closely watched US government crop reports.
The USDA is scheduled to release its quarterly grain stocks report and annual small grains report on Wednesday, which can trigger sharp moves in agricultural markets. Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect the USDA to slightly reduce its estimate for the 2026 US wheat harvest from 1.531 billion bushels to around 1.524 billion bushels.
The reduction may seem minor, but even modest revisions can influence futures prices. Wheat markets are sensitive to changes in supply because traders constantly compare expected production with domestic consumption and export demand. A lower production estimate could provide some support to prices if it suggests US supplies will be tighter than previously expected.