USDA Trims Corn Yield Forecast, Boosts Soybean Prices in September Report

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, which reveals a trimmed forecast for the 2026 US corn crop. The agency cut its national yield estimate to 178.5 bushels per acre, down from 2.2 bushels in August, resulting in a total production of 15.8 billion bushels, down 213 million bushels from August.

Despite the smaller crop, the USDA left its export forecast unchanged at 3.3 billion bushels, which means ending stocks for the 2026-27 marketing year were reduced by 86 million bushels to 1.6 billion. This tighter balance sheet pushed the USDA's season-average farm price forecast for corn up 30 cents to $4.80 a bushel.

Soybeans, on the other hand, bucked the trend with the USDA raising its production estimate to 4.5 billion bushels, up 16 million bushels from August, due to a slightly higher yield of 52.8 bushels per acre and marginally larger harvested area. Export demand was also revised upward, to 1.69 billion bushels, an increase of 25 million bushels that reflects the recent pickup in Chinese purchasing.

The season-average soybean price forecast jumped 60 cents to $12.00 a bushel, while soybean meal prices were raised $30 to $340 a short ton, and soybean oil held steady at 70 cents a pound.