Corn prices surged by as much as 3.7% in Chicago after the USDA released a report with a larger-than-expected cut to yield and production forecasts. The agency lowered the corn yield by 1.6 bushels per acre from October to 179.6 bushels per acre, a reduction that caught traders off guard. The changes were particularly notable in states like Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri, where yields dropped by 8, 5, and 5 bushels per acre, respectively. Meanwhile, Minnesota saw an increase of 9 bushels per acre, and Iowa’s yield remained unchanged at a record 219 bushels per acre.
Jeremy McCann, a broker at Farmer’s Keeper, noted that the corn market had lost over 50 cents since the last report, making the USDA’s adjustments a welcome relief for farmers. The report also highlighted increased volatility in USDA forecasts, prompting efforts to modernize the agency’s data collection methods. Farmers have been critical of the accuracy of these reports and have been less responsive to surveys, leading to declining response rates.
In other agricultural news, the USDA slightly raised its soybean production forecast to a record 4.57 billion bushels, with yields projected at 53.3 bushels per acre. Domestic ending stocks were reduced to 300 million bushels, down 15 million from the previous month. The national average farmgate price for soybeans was estimated at $12.10 per bushel, up 10 cents from October. Globally, new-crop ending stocks for the 2026/2027 marketing year were forecast at 123.5 million metric tons.
To address declining survey participation, the USDA announced a pilot program for text and email surveys, set to launch later in November. The initiative aims to encourage producers to complete surveys more efficiently, particularly during busy planting and harvest seasons. The agency hopes this modernization effort will improve the accuracy and reliability of its reports.