Venezuela Weighs Exit From OPEC Amid Producer Group's Waning Influence

Venezuela is considering leaving OPEC, a move that could further undermine the producer group's cohesion and influence over crude prices. The country helped establish OPEC more than six decades ago and would be following in the footsteps of the UAE, which withdrew from the organization earlier this year.

Despite its significant oil reserves, Venezuela's production has been severely impacted by years of sanctions and economic turmoil. It is currently exempt from OPEC's production quotas and a significant increase in output is not expected in the near future.

OPEC's influence on global oil markets is facing renewed pressure as the group struggles to manage periods of excess supply. The war in Iran has forced Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers to curb output, while Russia's influence has weakened due to its export challenges caused by the war in Ukraine.

The potential departure of Venezuela would have limited near-term supply implications, but could have more significant long-term implications if it followed the UAE out of OPEC. The two departures would remove over 5 million barrels per day (bpd) of production capacity from the organization, equivalent to roughly 17% of the capacity held by core members at the beginning of 2026.