Venezuela's Oil Production Expected to Recover by Mid-2026

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that Venezuela's oil production will return to pre-blockade levels by mid-2026. The country's state-owned oil company, PDVSA, was forced to make deep output cuts after the US naval blockade in December.

The blockade cut off Venezuela's ability to export oil, leading to millions of barrels building up in onshore tanks and vessels. However, with the recent expansion of US licenses for Venezuela-related deals, PDVSA has reversed most of the cuts, lifting output to around 1 million barrels per day.

The EIA notes that commodities traders Vitol and Trafigura have stored much of the oil in Caribbean terminals, from where it is likely to be shipped to refineries on the US Gulf Coast. The agency expects Brent crude to average $57.69 a barrel this year, a 3% increase from its prior forecast.