Venezuela's Oil Revival: A Multibillion-Dollar Threat to Canada

The revival of Venezuela's oil industry poses a significant threat to Canada's dominance as the largest supplier of crude oil to the United States. While Venezuela may not replace Canadian oil entirely, it can provide American refiners with another source of heavy crude, increasing competition and putting downward pressure on prices.

Canada exported around 4.3 million barrels of crude per day in 2025, with over 90% going to the US. However, Venezuelan output has recovered to about 1.25 million barrels per day, and a significant increase in production could give US refiners another option for heavy oil.

The threat is not immediate, but it's real, and Canada has something valuable: time. The country can use this time to reduce its dependence on the US market by increasing exports to other regions, such as Asia.