Virginia's $270 Billion Energy Plan Needs Resilient Scenario-Based Planning
Virginia is facing a massive $270 billion investment in electricity infrastructure over the next two decades, but uncertainties in load growth and other key assumptions raise concerns about the resilience of these plans. The power sector is navigating significant challenges, including shifting technology costs, delays in retiring fossil fuel plants, and a projected 30-50% increase in U.S. electricity demand by 2050. Dominion Energy, Virginia’s largest utility, is at the forefront of this transition, needing to balance growing electricity demand with the state’s clean energy goals under the Virginia Clean Economy Act.
The current integrated resource planning (IRP) approach in Virginia falls short in addressing the interconnected uncertainties of the future. For example, while Dominion evaluates individual variables like gas prices independently, it fails to account for how these factors might interact with others, such as renewable energy economics or clean baseload resource competition. The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) offers a better model with its 2025 IRP, which explores six different scenarios, including economic growth and stringent climate policies, to reflect how various factors shape resource portfolios.
Stakeholders have called for Dominion to modernize its IRP by incorporating a more holistic, scenario-based, risk-aware approach. This would involve evaluating factors like load growth, capacity prices, and transmission constraints together, rather than as isolated variables. Dominion’s latest IRP stakeholder survey revealed strong support for doubling renewable build limits, eliminating new natural gas builds, and boosting energy efficiency targets. However, testing these clean energy sensitivities individually would not capture how they function together in reality.
As Dominion prepares its 2026 IRP update, due later this fall, the utility has an opportunity to strengthen its planning process. By developing meaningful scenarios that reflect coherent, internally consistent futures, Dominion can better prepare for a range of uncertain conditions. Virginia regulators and legislators should also consider updating IRP frameworks to minimize risks for customers and ensure the state’s energy future remains resilient and reliable.