Volatility and Weather Concerns Keep Grain Prices Firm

Grain prices have held steady despite ongoing volatility and concerns over weather conditions. The UK feed wheat futures market remains close to £200.00/t as August approaches.

The Black Sea region continues to be a key source of uncertainty for global grain markets, with further attacks on shipping and infrastructure reinforcing concerns over potential export disruptions.

The European Commission has lowered its 2026/27 EU grain production forecasts, citing tighter supply outlooks. Soft wheat production is now estimated at 124.4 Mt, down from 126.3 Mt last month and 8% below the previous season. Soft wheat exports have been reduced to 29.0 Mt, while end-season stocks are expected to fall to 12.9 Mt.

Maize production was revised lower, with EU output cut to 51.9 Mt from 59.9 Mt in June. This has increased the EU's projected maize import requirement by 5.0 Mt to 24.0 Mt. Barley production was also revised lower, now forecast at 51.1 Mt.

The oilseeds complex slipped due to improving crop prospects and expectations of increased OPEC+ production. Concerns over weaker global demand pushed Nearby Brent crude lower. Beneficial rainfall across the US Midwest improved soybean prospects, with 63% of US soybeans currently in good to excellent condition.