Wars and Trade Policy Continue to Shape Irish Farmers' Fortunes

Irish farmers are facing a challenging environment due to wars and trade policy. Despite productivity gains, their bargaining power is limited in a sector where they compete with large suppliers and processors. The recent surge in wheat prices on the Chicago Board of Trade market, which has risen by 30% compared to last year's levels, is not due to reduced world production but rather restricted supply caused by wars in Ukraine and Iran.

Farm families are adjusting to these price increases, either by tightening their belts or seeking additional income. This trend has been observed before, particularly during the Napoleonic wars when wheat prices were high due to European conflicts. In fact, a historical find on one farm revealed an old pipe installed around 1800 by an improving landlord to take advantage of the high wheat prices.

The field in question was initially planted with wheat and potatoes for human consumption and oats for horse feed during the Napoleonic wars. However, after the repeal of the Corn Laws and the opening up of the American midwest, grain prices collapsed, leading to a shift towards grass and beef production. The Irish tillage area has since shrunk from 4.5m acres in the early 19th century to less than a quarter of that today.

The national policy aims to increase the tillage area, but current trade policy is working against this goal. Wars continue to disrupt supplies and impact farmer prices, highlighting the fragile nature of relying on them for long-term planning.