West Asia crude exports rise despite Strait of Hormuz attacks

Crude oil exports from West Asia surged above pre-war levels for four out of seven days in the final week of September, despite ongoing attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. According to shipping data, exports peaked between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day (bpd) on September 24 and from September 27 to 29. Before the US-Israeli war with Iran began, exports averaged 18 million bpd from March 2025 to February this year. By October 1, the 7-day moving average stood at 18.5 million bpd, encompassing transits through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and other routes.

The overall tally for crude, oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the week ending September 30. Additionally, liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz reached their highest monthly level since February. These figures exclude vessels that may have turned off their Automatic Identification System transponders to avoid detection.

Despite the rise in exports, attacks on tankers continued, with at least seven incidents reported. On October 1, the very large crude carrier Kazimah III was struck by an unknown projectile while operating in the strait, causing a fire onboard. All crew members were safely evacuated. The vessel had recently discharged 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude at the Ras Markaz port in Oman.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2. Shipping intelligence firm Marisks warned that merchant vessels face a "heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat," suggesting that Iranian forces may be launching missiles into predetermined engagement areas rather than targeting specific vessels.