West Asian Supply Recovery Boosts Oil Prices to Steady Plateau

Oil prices remained steady on Thursday, October 1, as investors weighed whether the recovery in West Asian crude supply could prevail. Brent crude settled around $98 a barrel, having surged as high as $104 during intraday trading on Wednesday, September 30.

The recovery of crude flows from West Asia is nearing pre-war levels, with JPMorgan Chase & Co analysts estimating that shipments have climbed back to 17.5 million barrels a day, or 98% of pre-war levels. However, fuel supplies had lagged behind, with product flows reaching only 3 million barrels a day, or 58%. The firm estimated that across both categories, flows stood at 89% of 2025 levels, based on the 10-day average over the past five days.

Iranian officials claimed to have received an official response from the US suggesting an end to the seven-month-long war. However, no headway has been made toward a lasting peace deal that would fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The uncertainty surrounding this issue has contributed to price volatility, making it harder for traders to predict the direction in which prices may move.

Attacks on merchant vessels and strikes by Tehran-aligned militants on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline have further complicated the situation. Traders are also speculating about the potential impact of an outright ban on diesel exports, with some saying that Europeans would soon announce new diesel supplies coming to market.