Wheat climbs on Black Sea supply disruptions and export delays

Wheat prices rose 0.9% to $6.89 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade as concerns over Black Sea grain supplies grew. The lack of progress in restoring exports through the region has left cargoes stranded, with a Singapore-based trader noting that “there were hopes that exports via the Black Sea would resume, but nothing seems to have happened and cargoes are still not leaving.”

Adding to market pressure, Russian President Vladimir Putin has rejected proposals to end attacks in the Black Sea, dimming hopes for a quick resolution. Consulting firm SovEcon downgraded its forecast for Russian grain exports in the 2026/2027 season to 44.7 million metric tons, down from 49.4 million tons, citing expectations that ports in the Azov and Black Seas will remain closed until 2027.

The corn market faced downward pressure due to higher US stocks, with the US Department of Agriculture reporting a 35% increase in corn inventories as of September 1 compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, StoneX adjusted its forecasts, lowering the US corn yield estimate to 182.1 bushels per acre from 182.9 bushels, while raising the soybean yield forecast to 54.1 bushels per acre from 53 bushels.

Traders are now awaiting fresh data from the US Department of Agriculture on corn and soybean production and stocks, with the ongoing US harvest influencing market movements.